I Told You So!

I posted the following to the misc.survivalism Usenet newsgroup on February 8, 2001, under the title: Rawles Calls Major Bottom in Silver Price:

“I have come to the conclusion that the long term bear trend in the price of silver has finally come to an end. Silver touched $4.55 earlier today. (Feb. 8, 2001.) If it closes in N.Y. at over $4.75 anytime in the next few weeks, that would be a strong bullish indicator. Look at the six month and ten year silver charts at for the “big picture.” Once there is a strong bullish indication, don’t hesitate to buy a good chunk of silver, pronto. (Some interesting observations on the lack of silver to meet demand.) And for general information and analysis on precious metals, see:  (Note: I am not affiliated in any way with either of these sites.)

[Some commentary on interest rates snipped, for brevity]

I may not have called the bottom perfectly, (silver may sag down to $4.25 before it rallies), but beyond that, IMHO the downside risk is minimal. And what about gold, you500彩票幸运快三怎么看走势 may ask? In my opinion, silver is much more likely to double than gold. This is much like buying penny stocks. (Which is more likely double–XYZ Corp. at 58 cents a share, or IBM at $108.00 a share?)”

For the record (as of August 4, 2005): IBM now sells at $83.12 a share. (A 24% loss, after four+ years. Charming.) And I wasn’t far from the mark when I cited $4.25 as the potential bottom. Silver actually bottomed just a few months later, at $4.19 per ounce. (I was off by less than 2% of calling the absolute bottom in a 10+ year bear market.) Silver has risen in fits and starts ever since. I am still convinced that silver is in the early stages of a multi-decade bull market and is headed to $60 per ounce (and possibly higher). Spot silver was at $7.21 an ounce at yesterday’s close, according to the folks at –a 58.1% gain, after four+ years.) But IMHO silver is still a bargain. In the long run the dollar is doomed. Are you500彩票幸运快三怎么看走势 worried that investing in silver won’t earn interest or dividends? Silver isn’t that sort of investment. Rather, think of it as fire insurance–for the dollar. Oh, and what about the fact that silver dropped from $7.21 to $7.11 on Friday (5 August)? The silver market is volatile. You should look beyond the daily fluctuations and instead concentrate on the long term trend. Gold is and silver are both in long term secular bull markets.



From The Memsahib: Raising Rabbits as a Protein Source for Tough Times

It was the late 1930s, the Nation was still in the throes of the Great Depression. Jim’s grandparents and their three you500彩票幸运快三怎么看走势ng children were getting by on Grandfather’s teaching salary. Then he died suddenly of a heart attack leaving Grandma Julia a widow and the children fatherless. Julia had to go to work. But, not only were women’s wages lower, but she had the added expense of hiring child care. Jim’s mother tells us that they raised rabbits in pens in their backyard to supplement their mother’s meager grocery budget. She and her little sister gathered grass from vacant lots to feed the rabbits. As we can learn from our parents and Grandparents, rabbits can be a good source of protein for you500彩票幸运快三怎么看走势r family during tough times. They do not need much space. They can multiply quickly. They do not eat much food. They are easy to handle and to butcher.
Rabbits are one animal you500彩票幸运快三怎么看走势 can start raising right now. A generously sized rabbit pen is two feet square. You will need at least two pens. One for the male rabbit (buck) and one for the female (doe) and her babies. (Adult rabbits are extremely territorial and will kill each other in defense of their territory.) I have a number of friends who raise their rabbits inside their 500彩票幸运快三怎么看走势s. But most people raise them in a shady spot in the back yard. Rabbits are the only small livestock you500彩票幸运快三怎么看走势 can raise in a suburban neighborhood. They make no sound, unlike hens that cackle and roosters that crow.
Rabbits can be very prolific. I will write more about selecting prolific rabbits in a subsequent blog post. A doe can produce five litters a year. An average litter is eight bunnies butchered at eight weeks old.
Most people feed rabbits commercial pellets. They are convenient and fairly inexpensive to feed. But, if you500彩票幸运快三怎么看走势 believe things are going to get really bad, you500彩票幸运快三怎么看走势 might consider raising you500彩票幸运快三怎么看走势r rabbits on forage like Jim’s grandmother did. Today’s rabbits have been bred to thrive on a pellet diet. So you500彩票幸运快三怎么看走势 might want to select for rabbits that are productive on freshly cut grass or grass hay for a long term survival situation.
Because of their small size, rabbits are easy to handle and easy to butcher. The trick is to handle them very firmly. A rabbit held tightly by the scruff with one hand and the other hand supporting its feet will not kick and thrash. Don’t be timid, but hold you500彩票幸运快三怎么看走势r rabbit firmly so to avoid getting scratched by the toenails on their powerful hind legs.
I have found butchering rabbits to be much quicker than butchering chickens because a rabbits skin is extremely loose. I can skin a rabbit much faster than I can pluck a chicken. No, it is not pleasant to butcher any animal. But there is a certain sense of satisfaction knowing you500彩票幸运快三怎么看走势 can feed you500彩票幸运快三怎么看走势r family even if the grocery store shelves are bare.
Rabbits are an excellent small livestock to get started with. Even if you500彩票幸运快三怎么看走势 don’t have the ability to move to the country, you500彩票幸运快三怎么看走势 can still gain many valuable skills by raising a few rabbits in you500彩票幸运快三怎么看走势r backyard.
A great book to buy and read before buying any rabbits is “Raising Rabbits the Modern Way” by Bob Bennett.

#1 Son Adds:

I recently read in Bradford Angier’s book How to Stay Alive in the Woods that a diet of rabbit meat alone will cause diarrhea, due to its leanness. Be sure to have some sort of fat in you500彩票幸运快三怎么看走势r diet to avoid “rabbit starvation”, which can cause death in less than a week. How to Stay Alive in the Woods is published by Black Dog & Leventhal Publishers, Inc.
It has also been published under the title Living off the Country



Reader’s Letters: On Hubbert’s Peak

> Hi Jim, I realize that you500彩票幸运快三怎么看走势 are a busy man but was wondering if you500彩票幸运快三怎么看走势 have been
> following the Peak Oil story. Seems like everyone is talking about
> our world oil supply. I remember following Gary North and taking
> heed to his advice, as much as I could. Still seems like a
> sustainable, remote lifestyle makes sense in light of what is looming
> on the horizon.
> Best regards to you500彩票幸运快三怎么看走势 and you500彩票幸运快三怎么看走势r family
> – J.M.

JWR’s Reply:
I think that the Hubbert’s Peak talk is a definitely premature (and perhaps a bit over-blown), but regardless, you500彩票幸运快三怎么看走势r children and grandchildren will thank you500彩票幸运快三怎么看走势
for planning ahead. It is prudent to have large liquid fuel storage tanks (diesel and propane), and lot of stored firewood (or coal), regardless. (Both in anticipation of a potential ) Hence, a “sustainable, remote lifestyle” makes sense for MANY reasons. Head for the hills, my friends! Here is some Food for Thought and Grounds for Further Research (FFTAGFFR): Hubbert’s Peak oriented web sites include and . Again, I think these folks are overly alarmist in the short term. (But not in the long term!)



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“It happened that a fire broke out backstage in a theater. The clown came out to inform the public. They thought it was just a jest and applauded. He repeated his warning, they shouted even louder. So I think the world will come to an end amid general applause from all the wits, who believe that it is a joke.” – Soren Kierkegaard





On Population Density

The Night Sky

Take a look at The Lights of the U.S. photo map at: . This montage of satellite photos makes it clear most of America’s population is east of the Mississippi River and is highly urbanized.The population density of the U.S. is dramatically lower west of the Mississippi River. In troubled times fewer people means fewer problems. In the event of a social upheaval, rioting, urban looting, et cetera, being west of the Mississippi will mean a statistically much lower chance of coming face to face with lawless rioters or looters When The Stuff Hits The Fan (WTSHTF).

The northeastern states depend on nuclear power plants for 47% of their electricity. (South Carolina is similarly dependent.) This is an unacceptable level of high technology systems dependence, particularly in light of the emerging terrorist threat. You must also consider that virtually all of the eastern states are downwind of major nuclear targets–most notably the USAF missile fields in the Dakotas. If for one reason or another you500彩票幸运快三怎么看走势 are stuck in the northeast, consider New Hampshire or Vermont. They are both gun friendly and have more self-sufficient lifestyle. But unless you500彩票幸运快三怎么看走势 have some compelling reason to stay in the East, I most strongly encourage you500彩票幸运快三怎么看走势 to Go West!

Urbanization

The other startling thing you500彩票幸运快三怎么看走势 will notice when looking at the Lights photo montage is that even in the western states, Americans live in a highly urbanized society. Roughly 90% of the population is crammed into 5% of the land area, mostly within 50 miles of the coast. But there are large patches of the west where there are virtually no lights at all–particularly in the Great Basin region that extends from the back side of the Sierra Nevada mountains to Utah and Eastern Oregon. The average population density in this region is less than two people per square mile.

As an example of the low population density in the west, I often like to cite Idaho County, Idaho: This one county measures 8,485 square miles–bigger than Connecticut and Rhode Island combined. But it has a population of just 15,400. And of those residents, roughly 3,300 people live in Grangeville, the county seat. Who lives in the rest of the County? Nary a soul. There are far more deer and elk than there are people. The population density of the county is 1.8 people per square mile. The county has more than 3 million acres of U.S. Forest Service land, BLM land, and designated Federal wilderness areas. Now that is elbow room!



The Return of Jonny Quest (on DVD)

Jonny Quest

Not only are we 500彩票幸运快三怎么看走势 schooling our kids, but we are also raising them without television. I can think of no better gift for a child than an upbringing WITHOUT broadcast or cable television. Current-day television is geared toward the beer, wrestling, and MTV crowd. As The Memsahib says: “Televisions have brightness controls, but they don’t work.” We do let our kids watch some carefully selected movies and TV shows on DVD, but NO broadcast television. We don’t even own a television set. But we can watch DVDs on our Mac computers.  Most recently I bought our kids the entire first season of the original 1960s TV series “Jonny Quest” DVD.

Now *that* is my idea of a manly-man cartoon for kids. Jonny Quest kicks tail! It is outrageously politically incorrect by current standards. Could you500彩票幸运快三怎么看走势 imagine a cartoon anything like it being produced these days? It shows children praying before going to bed. (Gasp!) It shows private citizens defending themselves with rifles and machineguns. It even shows children shooting semi-automatic rifles to fend off attacking alligators. (The horror!) If you500彩票幸运快三怎么看走势 have kids between the ages of 9 and 16, I recommend that you500彩票幸运快三怎么看走势 pick up a set of the first season on DVD. Because it is fairly expensive new, it is probably best to find a used set on eBay or Amazon.



A Letter From Afghanistan

Here is a letter that I just received from one of the troops to whom I sent an care package:

Greetings from Afghanistan

 I have been quite busy and failed to write you500彩票幸运快三怎么看走势 as soon as I wanted to. I am finally making time. First, I wanted to thank you500彩票幸运快三怎么看走势 for the package you500彩票幸运快三怎么看走势 sent. Having already owned the movie Red Dawn, I gave it to another Soldier here. I am in the process of reading the book [] now. I don’t know if it was providential or what, but I was the perfect person to send you500彩票幸运快三怎么看走势r book to. My Dad is definitely a survivalist and I consider myself one as well though I am not necessarily a doomsdayer. I believe that with the American economy in the shape that it currently is and the way that America has become a debtor society that you500彩票幸运快三怎么看走势r story is very plausible.

Not sure if you500彩票幸运快三怎么看走势 wrote the book based on something you500彩票幸运快三怎么看走势 believe could happen or because you500彩票幸运快三怎么看走势 just thought it would make a good story but I suspect the former of these two reasons. I am an unabashed Patriot and love my country but am also very realistic. I have been preparing myself for the future by investing in some bullion and plenty of weapons and ammunition (I’m a gun lover anyway and believe that all law abiding Americans should exercise their 2nd Amendment rights). Anyway, I just wanted to let you500彩票幸运快三怎么看走势 know that I appreciate you500彩票幸运快三怎么看走势r support and you500彩票幸运快三怎么看走势r kindness in sending the package.

A little about things here. I am stationed with an [deleted for OPSEC] on Bagram Airfield and am a volunteer individual augmentee from Fort Bragg where I am the [deleted for OPSEC] NCOIC for an [deleted for OPSEC] Brigade. I have been here in Afghanistan six months now and the time is going quickly. It is pretty safe here on Bagram other than the occasional mortar or rocket attack. That’s about all I have to write for now. Thanks again for you500彩票幸运快三怎么看走势r support. I believe that we are making a difference for the better here in Afghanistan and Iraq.

God Bless and take care, SGT [Name Withheld]



From The Memsahib: Endless Logistics Shopping Lists

I am frequently asked by other wives about their husbands’ seemingly endless logistics shopping lists for survival goodies. Wives who do NOT believe things are getting worse don’t see the need for ALL those guns, ALL that ammo, ALL that storage food.
It might help if you500彩票幸运快三怎么看走势 look at preparedness as you500彩票幸运快三怎么看走势r husband’s hobby. It seems like all the men of my acquaintance have hobbies of one sort or another on which they spend a considerable amount of money and time. Some collect motorcycles, others fishing or water-ski boats, still others have all the latest and greatest computer equipment. And others smoke, drink, or gamble. All humans pursue leisure activities. Be thankful that you500彩票幸运快三怎么看走势r husband is spending money on practical things that likely will go up in value, because of inflation.

My husband’s hobby is stocking up for the bad times. Personally I’m glad that he isn’t blowing the money on booze or cigarettes. When I see all the money people spend on vices and toys, I thank the Lord that Jim is buying us useful things. Jim’s stocking up has really saved us a lot of money over time. Even if there is never a major crisis, bulk purchasing makes sense. By buying in bulk, you500彩票幸运快三怎么看走势 can buy at much better prices than buying small quantities. As long as you500彩票幸运快三怎么看走势 keep in mind the storage life of various items, and how much room they will take up, there is no downside. We have actually saved a lot of money over the years, because we’ve sheltered ourselves from the effects of inflation in many instances.

Jim’s preparedness/self-sufficiency has also caused me to develop some hobbies of my own that I really enjoy. It has given me the excuse to learn how to spin, knit,and weave. When I want to buy sheep, Angora goats or Angora rabbits Jim goes along with my wishes. He sees the value in knowing how to make our own clothes. When I need an accessory for my spinning wheel, he always agrees. Is there a hobby you500彩票幸运快三怎么看走势 would enjoy that dovetails? Gardening? Cooking? Sewing? Soap making? Raising chickens? Or? Your husband will be happy knowing that you500彩票幸运快三怎么看走势 are helping you500彩票幸运快三怎么看走势r family to be well prepared.

My husband is a lot easier to live with when he feels well prepared and supplied. Stock market crash? Dollar devaluation? He doesn’t care! Our money is all in tangibles. If things ever do get REALLY bad, you500彩票幸运快三怎么看走势 can thank God for you500彩票幸运快三怎么看走势r husband’s providence.



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“[A] wise and frugal government, which shall restrain men from injuring one another, which shall leave them otherwise free to regulate their own pursuits of industry and improvement, and shall not take from the mouth of labor the bread it has earned. This is the sum of good government.” – Thomas Jefferson, First Inaugural Address, March 4, 1801